According to information obtained by FormulaBG that remains unconfirmed, if Qatar and Abu Dhabi are dropped as expected, the final round of the Formula 2 season will be held in Baku. It’s already starting to look increasingly certain that Formula 1 will end its year at Imola, but the junior championship won’t be travelling to Italy. Whether the F2 finale in Azerbaijan will keep its standard format is also still under discussion.

There’s still no official confirmation. In the published calendars, Qatar and Abu Dhabi remain the final two rounds for both Formula 1 and Formula 2. Behind the scenes, though, preparations for a different ending to the 2026 season are already underway.

According to information obtained by FormulaBG, if the two Middle East races are dropped, Formula 2 will not follow Formula 1 to the backup European venue. That would mean the championship wraps up in Baku on 26 September – more than two months earlier than originally planned.

Officially, Qatar and Abu Dhabi Remain – For Now

At the moment, the official Formula 2 calendar still lists Lusail from 27 to 29 November and Yas Marina from 4 to 6 December. The same applies to the Formula 1 calendar.

A decision is expected to be made around mid-September. Stefano Domenicali has already confirmed that if Qatar and Abu Dhabi are unable to host their races, the Formula 1 season will end in Europe. He named Imola as one of the real options, while stressing that nothing has been finalised. Reuters also names the Italian circuit as the leading candidate.

Qatar continues its preparations and insists the country is ready to host the race. The president of the local motoring federation told Reuters that the airport is operating normally and that preparations for the Grand Prix haven’t stopped. That doesn’t change the fact that Formula 1 is preparing a backup scenario.

Portimao Has Declined, Imola Remains

Portimao long looked like the natural European alternative. Portugal offers a milder climate in late November, a modern circuit, and experience hosting emergency races during the pandemic seasons.

According to information obtained by FormulaBG, though, that option has now been definitively ruled out. Organisers at Portimao have turned down the chance to host Formula 1 on such short notice, as the circuit and its surrounding infrastructure aren’t ready for an event of that scale. The Portuguese track is preparing for its return to the calendar in 2027 and doesn’t want to compromise its planned upgrades with a rushed race this winter.

Public reporting so far had only cast doubt on Portimao because of the infrastructure work required. RacingNews365 reported that this has allowed Imola to move to the front of the queue among the backup options.

So Imola remains the near-certain choice if Formula 1 can’t travel to the Middle East.

Why Only One Replacement Race?

If Qatar and Abu Dhabi are dropped, Formula 1 isn’t expected to replace both races. The more likely scenario is that the season gets just one additional European round.

The original calendar had 24 races. After the changes around Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, 23 currently remain. Removing Qatar and Abu Dhabi would cut that to 21, and adding Imola would bring it back to 22 – the threshold around which part of the championship’s TV and commercial contracts are structured.

It’s still unclear whether the Imola race would take Qatar’s 29 November date or Abu Dhabi’s 6 December slot. Motorsport.com reports that teams have already made provisional hotel bookings in the area.

The main risk isn’t just the cold. In late November in Emilia-Romagna, daylight hours are short, and fog can interfere with the medical helicopter’s operations. So if the race goes ahead, qualifying and the race will likely be scheduled earlier in the day.

Formula 2 Won’t Travel to Imola

A venue swap in Formula 1 doesn’t automatically mean the support championships move too. According to information obtained by FormulaBG, Formula 2 isn’t part of the plan for Imola.

Organising an additional round for 11 teams, 22 cars and the entire F2 technical fleet requires its own logistics, budget and approval. The short daylight window further limits the ability to fit practice, qualifying and two races into the schedule.

So if Qatar and Abu Dhabi are dropped, the Formula 2 season will end in Baku.

Baku Could Get a Non-Standard Finale

The Azerbaijan weekend itself is already unusual. The Formula 1 race is scheduled for Saturday, 26 September, rather than Sunday, because of the country’s National Day of Mourning. The whole programme has been shifted forward.

It remains to be decided how this will affect Formula 2, and whether the usual structure will be kept if Baku becomes the season finale.

F2’s standard format includes practice and qualifying, a 120-kilometre sprint, and a 170-kilometre feature race with a mandatory pit stop. In a normal round a driver can score a maximum of 39 points – 10 from the sprint, 25 from the feature race, two for pole, and one each for fastest lap in both races.

At this stage there’s no decision on whether Baku will simply see its days and times reshuffled, or whether there will be a more substantial adaptation of the race programme. It also hasn’t been confirmed whether any different format would change the number of points on offer. So talk of a third race, double points, or other radical solutions would, for now, be pure speculation.

What Does This Mean for Nikola Tsolov’s Fight?

Heading into the Monza weekend, Nikola Tsolov led the championship with 167 points. Gabriele Mini was second on 147, and Rafael Camara had 145.

Under the original calendar, four rounds remained after Monza – Madrid, Baku, Qatar and Abu Dhabi. If the last two are dropped, drivers lose four races and up to 78 possible points.

That works in the leader’s favour, since his rivals will have fewer opportunities to close the gap. But it also raises the cost of every mistake. A mechanical failure, an incident, or a scoreless weekend at Monza or Madrid would no longer be recoverable in December.

If Baku keeps its standard format, there will be a maximum of 39 points up for grabs after Madrid. Any lead beyond that margin would settle the title before the final round even arrives. If the programme is changed, the maths will have to be redone from scratch.

The Finale Is Coming Earlier

No official decision has been published yet, and Qatar and Abu Dhabi continue to insist they’re ready to host Formula 1. But the direction of the backup plan is becoming clearer by the day.

Portimao has declined. Imola is preparing to close out the Formula 1 season. Formula 2 won’t be part of the Italian weekend, and if the two Middle East rounds are dropped, it will crown its champion in Baku.

Only one real question remains: will the season end under the rules it started with, or in a format built specifically for the year’s most unexpected finale?