Strong Results, No Guarantees: Why Lawson’s Red Bull Future Is Hanging in the Balance

Liam Lawson keeps delivering points, but his Racing Bulls seat for 2027 remains unconfirmed. With Nikola Tsolov waiting for an opportunity and his route back to the senior team looking increasingly narrow, the New Zealander is leaving the door open to a future beyond Red Bull.

The season is entering its decisive stages, and Liam Lawson still does not know whether he will be racing for Racing Bulls next year. Strong performances have brought little reassurance. Instead, he continues to face questions about his future while Red Bull weighs up whether to retain him or make room for Nikola Tsolov. As of October 21, his place for 2027 remains unconfirmed.

It is an increasingly uncomfortable position: Lawson is delivering results, but those performances have yet to secure his future.

Three drivers, two seats — and Lawson under pressure

Alan Permane offered no firm deadline during the Singapore weekend. The Racing Bulls team principal said the team was in no hurry and expected to settle its line-up in the coming weeks. Three names remain in contention: Lawson, Arvid Lindblad and Tsolov.

More concerning for Lawson is how that decision will be made. Permane stressed that Racing Bulls must consider its responsibility to develop young talent and assess what drivers could achieve in the future. This season’s points will not decide everything.

Lawson could be doing his job well and still find himself without a seat.

Why has a new deal not been announced?

The public explanation points to an ongoing selection process within Red Bull. Racing Bulls has an effective driver pairing, but the next academy prospect is waiting for an opening.

In its October 20 analysis, RacingNews365 suggested that Lindblad’s rookie campaign had effectively earned him a second season. That places the pressure on the other seat — and on whether Red Bull will choose Lawson over Tsolov.

There is no public confirmation that financial demands or Lawson’s rejection of proposed terms are behind the delay. The more worrying issue for him is that Red Bull is still leaving open the question of whether he is the driver it wants next season.

Even strong weekends bring little reassurance

After Singapore, Lawson was once again asked whether he had done enough to keep his seat. His response — “You tell me!” — captured the uncertainty surrounding his position.

He finished fifth in the Sprint and, according to Formula1.com’s race report, eighth in the Grand Prix. Yet even after scoring in both races, the conversation returned to his survival at the team. Lawson said his focus remained on delivering points consistently.

Sky Sports’ Ted Kravitz backed his retention, arguing that Racing Bulls should not drop a driver producing performances like those. But that public support has yet to translate into reassurance from the people making the decision.

The route back to Red Bull looks increasingly narrow

Lawson also faces a longer-term problem. Even if he stays at Racing Bulls, what comes next?

His temporary return to Red Bull as the injured Isack Hadjar’s replacement in 2026 demonstrated progress. He scored points in two of his three appearances, while Laurent Mekies praised his composure, focus and approach to working with the team.

Nevertheless, Lawrence Barretto reported in his Formula1.com analysis that Lawson was not believed to be in contention for a permanent return to the senior outfit.

That leaves him vulnerable. If promotion opportunities are limited and Racing Bulls continues preparing the next generation, how long can he rely on keeping his place?

Lawson is leaving the door open to life beyond Red Bull

Against that backdrop, his recent comments carry extra weight. In remarks published by RacingNews365 on October 18, Lawson explained that his ambition is to win and that he would consider a team offering a better opportunity to achieve that.

The question concerned a potential departure after 2027, should he retain his seat for next season. Lawson also acknowledged the need for drivers to keep their options open, while stressing that his immediate priority remained racing and Racing Bulls’ constructors’ championship fight.

No specific destination or confirmed negotiations have emerged from those comments. The message is still significant: Lawson is publicly leaving room for a career outside the Red Bull system.

Tsolov waits as Lawson’s uncertainty continues

For Nikola Tsolov, the uncertainty represents an opportunity. Permane named him among the three main candidates for 2027, and his Formula 2 performances are putting pressure on Racing Bulls to provide a route forward.

For Lawson, it means approaching each remaining race with another reason to prove why he deserves to stay. He has the results and experience, and has demonstrated that he can step into the senior team when needed. What he still lacks is a guarantee.

As Red Bull’s deliberations continue, the question becomes harder to ignore: does Lawson have a long-term future in the system, or is he fighting for another year before facing the same uncertainty again?

Sources / Източници: Formula1.com — Alan Permane; RacingNews365 — driver decision; RacingNews365 — Lawson on a possible exit; Formula1.com — Lawson’s future; PlanetF1 — Ted Kravitz.