In the early stages of their careers, Esteban Ocon was seen as the more promising prospect in Mercedes’ junior program – he was picked ahead of Pascal Wehrlein and handed a Force India seat for 2017, positioning him as a potential heir to Lewis Hamilton. Even so, he never made an overwhelming case for himself.

George Russell’s trajectory proved more impressive, despite being the younger of the two. Toto Wolff was won over by his professionalism, his dominance in Formula 2, his simulator work, and a sensational 2018 test in which he topped the times ahead of that year’s extremely quick Ferrari.

A missed opportunity came at the 2019 German Grand Prix, when Ocon was considered as a stand-in for Hamilton – had he raced in the rainy conditions that weekend, his career might have taken a very different path. Wolff instead chose stability over risk, explaining that putting Ocon against Hamilton “is not good for him, especially after sitting out one year,” pointing also to the difficulties of pairing Hamilton with a combative teammate, as had happened with Nico Rosberg.

The decisive moment came with Russell’s sensational stand-in performance at Sakhir in 2020, where he completely eclipsed Valtteri Bottas and confirmed his status as Hamilton’s natural successor – ending Ocon’s Mercedes prospects for good. Ocon remained the team’s reserve driver, and his eventual move to Renault was later described more as a gesture of thanks than a vote of confidence in his potential.

Source: The Race (https://www.the-race.com/formula-1/how-russell-usurped-ocon-as-mercedes-hamilton-successor/)