Seven points from the lead, three possible endings: Nikola Tsolov’s F2 title scenarios

The Formula 2 title fight now also depends on two decisions away from the circuit: whether the final rounds take place and whether championship leader Rafael Camara returns after his Formula 1 call-up. For Nikola Tsolov, the difference between those possibilities is substantial, ranging from a lost opportunity to attack to a genuine chance to win the championship.

Where the championship stands

The official calendar still lists Lusail on November 27–29 and Abu Dhabi on December 4–6. Each weekend includes a Sprint and a Feature Race. A driver can score a maximum of 39 points per round, or 78 across both: 10 for the Sprint, 25 for the Feature Race, two for pole position and one for the fastest lap in each race, subject to the eligibility requirements.

As of November 4, the season has not officially been declared over. Bruno Michel has publicly defended the plan to finish in Qatar and Abu Dhabi despite uncertainty surrounding events in the region. The following scenarios are conditional analysis, rather than announced decisions.

Scenario 1: No more races — Camara becomes champion

If both remaining rounds are cancelled without replacements and the existing results remain unchanged, Camara would finish as champion with 207 points. Tsolov would remain second on 200, ahead of Dunne on 189.

The sporting regulations determine the champion using points scored in competitions that actually took place. Camara’s move to Formula 1 does not, by itself, erase the points he has already earned.

For Tsolov, this would be the most frustrating outcome. A seven-point deficit is entirely recoverable, but he would have no further opportunity to attack it. His second place in the final Baku Feature Race would become his last response in the championship.

Camara is not officially the F2 champion at present. That outcome depends on the calendar being definitively concluded and the results confirmed.

Scenario 2: Racing resumes, but Camara stays in F1 — Tsolov targets a fixed 207 points

This is the possibility that could change the fight most dramatically. If Camara misses all remaining F2 races, his total would stay at 207.

Tsolov needs eight points to move ahead without a tie. Even seven would be sufficient against an absent Camara on the current countback: Feature Race victories are the first tie-breaking criterion, and Tsolov has four to the Brazilian’s three.

Passing Camara would not automatically deliver the title, however. Dunne is only 11 points behind Tsolov and would continue scoring too. With two full rounds remaining, other drivers would also retain a mathematical chance.

There is an important distinction here: Camara’s Brazilian Grand Prix debut does not automatically rule out an F2 return. Article 26.5 prohibits a driver nominated to race in Formula 1 from competing in Formula 2 at the same event. If Haas nominates him for Qatar or Abu Dhabi, he cannot also race in F2 there.

Media reports about his subsequent programme differ. Some suggest his F2 campaign may be over; others envisage a return for the final rounds. His absence therefore remains a condition of this scenario.

Scenario 3: Camara returns — the title is decided on track

If the calendar goes ahead and Camara returns to his Invicta car, Tsolov must recover seven points in direct competition. Outscoring the Brazilian by eight over the remaining races guarantees a higher points total; a seven-point gain produces a tie that must be resolved by results.

A Tsolov Feature Race victory with Camara second would produce exactly a seven-point swing, excluding bonuses. That illustrates how small the gap is. Camara could also change the countback by winning further races himself.

The danger for Tsolov would be focusing entirely on the leader and underestimating Dunne. The Irishman is close enough to exploit a poor weekend for both drivers ahead.

If only one standard round remains, a maximum of 39 points would leave only Camara, Tsolov and Dunne mathematically in contention. Two rounds would preserve a wider fight and provide more scope to recover from a mistake.

Qualifying, consistency and avoiding non-scoring results will be central to Tsolov’s challenge. He already has more Feature Race wins than Camara. The task is to convert that speed into enough points at the finale — if the finale takes place.

Sources: F2: standings · F2: calendar · FIA: Sporting Regulations · F2: Baku analysis · Motorsport.com · Grande Prêmio · Yahoo Sports